The Quantum Doomsday Clock website has been warning about when quantum computers could break Bitcoin (BTC) encryption for well over a year and, at press time on September 23, the timeline appears more dire than ever.
Specifically, the tool developed by Colton Dillion and cryptographer Rick Carback estimates that ‘the end of crypto’ – as the landing page itself says – could come as soon as Wednesday, March 8, 2028.
The countdown to ‘the end of crypto’. Source: Quantum Doomsday Clock
This estimate, which places the Bitcoin ‘doomsday’ just 17.5 months in the future relative to press time, is based on quantum computing advancements and measures when BTC’s elliptic curve digital signatures could be compromised.
The danger is primarily in that the attackers, leveraging the advanced computers, could derive private keys from the exposed public keys using Shor’s algorithm.
Notably, the Quantum Doomsday Clock also estimates when international banking and the internet could suffer their ‘end’ – 2029 – and when government and military systems might ‘fall’ – 2030.
Extended timeline for when critical systems will fall due to quantum computing. Source: Quantum Doomsday Clock
2026 record flurry of quantum computing activity
Meanwhile, 2026 saw a substantial uptick in interest in quantum computing and the associated danger.
Throughout the year, the Federal Government has been taking a variety of actions aimed at further advancing, but also controlling, the technology.
For example, the Department of Commerce announced its intent to invest approximately $2 billion in a variety of relevant companies on May 21 and, on June 22, the White House published an executive order titled ‘Ushering in the next frontier of quantum innovation,’ intent on ensuring the U.S. remains on the bleeding edge.
Advancements have also been made in the private sector. Quantinuum (NASDAQ: QNT) announced the commercial launch of its Helios machine – touted as the most accurate such quantum computer in the world – late in 2025.
Even more recently – on September 23, 2026 – IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) announced it would deploy its Superion 256 quantum computer at Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) Accelerated Quantum Research Center (NVAQC).
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