The final barrier standing between bitcoin
$BTC$81,333.41 and a potentially broader recovery has fallen.
Bitcoin closed the week ended Sept. 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, marking what Galaxy Research’s Head Alex Thorn described as a potentially important confirmation that the market’s bear phase may have run its course and a new uptrend is upon us.
The cryptocurrency rose nearly 6% during the week and was trading around $81,000, extending its rebound to 29% over the past 35 days. The move pushed Bitcoin’s weekly candlestick – the graphical representation of a week’s price action – above the 50-week average, rather than merely testing it.
That distinction matters.
Bitcoin trades around the clock, but its weekly candle closes at 23:59 UTC on Sunday, with a new candle opening immediately afterward. Analysts typically place more weight on the weekly or daily candles above a major moving average than on a brief move through it.
$BTC‘s weekly price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)
Why the 50-week average matters?
The 50-week moving average is simply the average weekly closing price over roughly the past year. In market analysis, it is often used as a proxy for Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
During healthy advances, bitcoin tends to trade above the line. During prolonged declines, rallies often fail below it.
Galaxy has described the average as a kind of ceiling during major bitcoin drawdowns. Once the cryptocurrency falls below it, attempts to reclaim the level have historically failed until the market is closer to a durable low.
At the same, successful breakouts have marked an end of bear markets and paved the way for pronounced bull runs.
Galaxy examined major Bitcoin slumps since 2011 and found that Bitcoin closed a week back above its 50-week moving average 13 times. In 11 of those instances, the market did not go on to set a new low, suggesting the worst of the decline had already passed.
Here are some noteworthy crossovers that presaged massive bull runs.
- After the 2011 crash, bitcoin reclaimed the average in January 2012. The decline was effectively over, and $BTC went on to stage a roughly 600-fold rally, rising from around $2 to a then-record high near $1,200 in late 2013.
- Following the 2014–15 bear market, bitcoin crossed back above the line in October 2015. It did not revisit the cycle low and went on to stage roughly a 100-fold rally, climbing from around $200 to a record high near $20,000 in December 2017.
- After the 2018 crash, bitcoin reclaimed the average in May 2019 and did not revisit its December 2018 low. From the cycle low near $3,200, $BTC went on to stage roughly a 22-fold rally, reaching a record high above $69,000 in November 2021.
- After the 2022 market bottom, bitcoin crossed above the average in March 2023 and remained above it for more than two years. From a low near $15,500, $BTC went on to post roughly an eightfold rally, climbing to a record high of about $126,000 in October 2025.