Glassnode reported that Bitcoin ($BTC) has retreated to a critical support zone after retesting its February lows. According to the analysis, while the $BTC price remains near important technical levels, the pricing of future uncertainty in the options market has weakened significantly.
Data shows that Bitcoin’s one-week implied volatility has fallen from approximately 60% to 35%. The downward trend in the overall volatility curve also indicates that the market’s expectation of sharp short-term price fluctuations has decreased compared to recent times.
Glassnode also noted that the 25 delta skew indicator has retreated from the extreme levels seen during the June sell-off. This suggests that short-term hedging demand is normalizing and panic-driven hedging positions are weakening.
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Despite this, the overall market positioning remains defensive. While downward hedging demand is prominent in short-term options trading, put options accounted for approximately 28% of trading volume last week. In contrast, call option purchases accounted for 24.1%.
The analysis also noted that the one-month implied volatility remained below the realized volatility. This indicates that the options market is pricing in a lower volatility expectation than current price movements imply.
According to Glassnode, there is approximately $1.8 billion in short-term gamma concentration around $62,000. A drop in Bitcoin’s price below this level could lead to accelerated volatility. Conversely, a longer-term gamma buffer exists in the $60,000 region.
*This is not investment advice.