CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analysis platform, issued a noteworthy warning in its latest assessment of the Bitcoin market. According to the analysis, despite the recent recovery in Bitcoin price, the fundamental problem is not the price itself, but rather the weakness in spot demand.
According to the company’s data, the “apparent demand” metric is still in negative territory. As of April 30th, this value was measured at -44,770 $BTC, while the 30-day moving average was recorded at approximately -57,290 $BTC. This indicates that despite price increases, there has been no new and sustainable influx of demand into the market.
The analysis specifically highlighted the behavior of large investor groups. It noted that wallets holding over 10,000 $BTC and investors holding between 1,000 and 10,000 $BTC had declined by approximately 0.46% and 0.54% respectively over the past 60 days. This data indicates that the largest whales, who have significant price-driving power in the market, have not been buying sufficiently, and some have even remained partially on the selling side.
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On the other hand, an increase of approximately 0.95% was observed in the investor group holding between 100 and 1,000 $BTC. While this indicates a limited accumulation process in the mid-to-upper segment, it is not enough to change the overall picture. The movements of smaller investor groups also reveal that there is no broad-based and synchronized demand across the market.
According to CryptoQuant, the current structure indicates “selective accumulation” in the market, but this is not enough for a strong and sustainable uptrend. It is stated that if large investors do not re-enter the market strongly and visible demand remains negative, Bitcoin’s price increases may remain fragile.
The analysis also highlights the impact of derivative markets. According to the analysis, futures contracts continue to hold a weight of close to 90% in price formation, while the weak structure of the spot market makes this imbalance even more pronounced. This picture reveals that a significant strengthening in spot demand is critical for Bitcoin’s upward trend to continue.
*This is not investment advice.