Cryptocurrency prediction markets are leaning toward a potential decline in XRP’s price by November 30, even as the asset struggles to reclaim the $1.30 mark.
Indeed, insights from cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket indicate that the majority of traders expect the asset to fall below $1.20, assigning the outcome an 80% probability.
The odds of a deeper decline below $1 are considerably lower, at 20%, while the probability of falling below $0.80 stands at 6%.
Advertisement
On the upside, traders see a 45% chance of XRP surpassing $1.40 by the end of November. The probability drops to 14% for a move above $1.60 and 6% for a rally beyond $1.80. Meanwhile, the odds of XRP reaching $2 stand at just 4%.
The market also assigns a 2% probability to XRP climbing above $3 by November 30.
XRP price prediction. Source: Polymarket
XRP’s bearish trend
Notably, the traders’ positioning suggests the market is more concerned about further downside than a significant recovery, although the probabilities reflect speculative expectations rather than guaranteed price outcomes.
The bearish positioning is consistent with XRP’s recent technical performance. As of press time, the asset was trading at $1.25, having corrected by more than 3% over the past week.
XRP seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold
As things stand, the cryptocurrency needs to reclaim its 20-day moving average (MA) around $1.31 and its 50-day moving average at $1.39 to strengthen the prospects of a recovery.
A sustained break below the $1.20 level could expose XRP to further downside toward $1.09.
Advertisement
Meanwhile, the current technical outlook comes as XRP continues to follow Bitcoin’s (BTC) broader market direction.
XRP stable after Binance hack
The relationship was particularly evident during the October 29 Binance hack, which triggered widespread selling across cryptocurrency markets. XRP fell approximately 7% to $1.21 on October 29 as Bitcoin and other major digital assets also declined.
However, the token appears to be shrugging off the immediate fallout as market confidence gradually stabilizes.
Binance has announced that it has covered 90% of the estimated $6.3 billion in losses using corporate funds, its Secure Asset Fund for Users and its futures insurance fund. The exchange has also committed to fully compensating affected users.
Although the incident initially triggered substantial withdrawals and institutional outflows, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies subsequently stabilized, easing some of the immediate selling pressure.
However, there are potential catalysts that could support a recovery. For instance, XRP exchange-traded funds (ETF) recorded $4.3 million in inflows during the week of October 26-30, although their total assets of $1.42 billion indicate that institutional demand remains relatively modest.
Featured image via Shutterstock
Advertisement