Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone believes that a critical inflection point for Bitcoin ($BTC) versus US Treasury bonds could mean a crash for the broader cryptocurrency market.
In a recent post on X, McGlone cautioned that Bitcoin’s ongoing underperformance against US government bonds may have major implications for other asset classes.
“Bitcoin may be backing down at a key inflection point vs. US Treasury bonds, with broad implications for all assets,” McGlone wrote.
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Bitcoin Below $80,000 a Sign of Crypto Breakdown vs. T-Bonds Bitcoin may be backing down from a key inflection point vs. US Treasury bonds, with broad implications for all assets. My graphic highlights the iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) potentially rolling over vs. the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) from a base of 100 at the end of 2024. At 81 on Oct. 30, the IBIT/TLT ratio has been unable to sustain above par since 4Q25 despite IBIT trading at about 4x the volatility of TLT. Bitcoin’s dud performance vs. US T-bonds since the end of the milestone year that marked the launch of US ETFs and President Donald Trump’s shift to crypto enthusiast from antagonist may signal an end of Bitcoin’s glory days. US Treasuries are among the world’s most widely leveraged markets, and T-bonds beating Bitcoin for about two years could be a harbinger of what to expect if the crypto stays below $80,000. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/OZkRpSxOSs {BI COMD} #Bitcoin #bonds @BBGIntelligence
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) October 31, 2026
According to the Bloomberg strategist, $80,000 is a key price level for Bitcoin. He noted that if $BTC’s weakness persists below this price, then the cryptocurrency market may face more trouble.
Bitcoin vs US Treasury Bonds
McGlone illustrated his bearish outlook on Bitcoin by comparing BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT).
As of Oct. 30, the IBIT/TLT ratio was at 81, according to McGlone. Here, he set an initial value of 100 at the end of 2024.
This implies that the Bitcoin ETF has underperformed the Treasury bond ETF by roughly 19% on a normalized relative-performance basis during this time.
Furthermore, the IBIT/TLT ratio has struggled to stay above the 100 mark since Q4 of 2025.
Notably, McGlone said that IBIT is about four times as volatile as TLT, so its relative underperformance is alarming.
This is despite Bitcoin’s significantly higher volatility. Still, investors holding long-term Treasury bonds have seen better relative performance since the end of 2024.
Are the glory days of Bitcoin over?
Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s McGlone also asked if the glory days of Bitcoin could be over.
He mentioned that 2024 was a remarkable year for crypto, with the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and President Donald Trump going from a crypto critic to a vocal supporter.
However, Bitcoin hasn’t outperformed traditional government bonds since then.
Per McGlone, the poor performance of the cryptocurrency may mean its best days are in the past.