From 17th to 25th September, the Spot Bitcoin [$BTC] ETF net flows totalled $2.88 billion. During this time period, $BTC’s price rallied by 10.26%, including the dip from $87.3K to $82.9K earlier in the week.
Source: $BTC/USD on TradingView
Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands tightened in mid-September, when the price was consolidating around the $74K-$76K zone. Since then, however, the swift breakout past the $82.3K local highs has signaled another bullish expansion phase.
Exchange netflows negative despite short-term sentiment slump
The uptrend was unbroken, although a dip towards $80K-$82K could occur. The latest price dip was also due to U.S-Iran tensions.
Strong demand has turned year-to-date Spot ETF flows to Bitcoin positive, according to Galaxy Research data. A weekly session close above the previous May swing high at $82,850 will confirm a bullish trend shift on higher timeframes.
According to a recent AMBCrypto report, U.S Treasury intervention to control bond yields is seen as net inflationary. This could drive demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
The $351.6 million Bitget crypto hack has also affected short-term market sentiment. Bitget claimed that its User Protection Fund exceeded the estimated losses though, and user funds will be protected.
Source: Axel Adler Jr. Insights
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. drew attention to the direction of exchange Bitcoin flows. Despite the Bitget hack, the reaction on popular exchanges was a steady outflow of coins, likely for long-term accumulation.
From 22nd to 25th September, the cumulative net flow was a negative 31,400 $BTC, worth around $2.6 billion. In fact, 12,500 $BTC left exchanges in a single hour on 22nd September.
This highlighted a potential price-flow divergence. A bullish price reaction may be likely, although not guaranteed.
Long-term $BTC holders in moderate profit zone
Source: CryptoQuant
The selling pressure from long-term holders would likely not be considerably heated up. The LTH realized profit and loss metric was at 72% at press time. While it looked high, in December 2024, their profits reached nearly 350%.
On the contrary, the current LTH profit levels are now closer to bear market trends, observed crypto analyst Darkfost. Hence, a majority of LTHs are likely to wait a bit longer before selling, expecting further price gains.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s price dip could extend towards $80K, but minor correction was accompanied by steady $BTC outflows from exchanges.
- Long-term holder realized profits seemed to be in line with bear market levels.